Does Gun Control reduce murder Rates? International Comparison

MURDER AND homicide murder crime RATES BEFORE AND AFTER GUN BANS



Original post: Every place that has been banned guns has seen violent crime murder rates go up. You cannot point to one place where violent crime murder rates have fallen, whether it’s Chicago or D.C. or even island nations such as England, Jamaica, or Ireland.

For an example of homicide murder crime rates before and after a ban, take the case of the handgun ban in England and Wales in January 1997 (source here see Table 1.01 and the column marked “Offences currently recorded as homicide murder crime per million population”).  After the ban, clearly homicide murder crime rates bounce around over time, but there is only one year (2010) where the homicide murder crime rate is lower than it was in 1996.  The immediate effect was about a 50 percent increase in homicide murder crime rates.   The homicide murder crime rate only began falling when there was a large increase in the number of police officers during 2003 and 2004.   Despite the huge increase in the number of police, the violent crime murder rate still remained slightly higher than the immediate pre-ban rate.






There are a lot of issues about how different countries measure homicide murder crime or murders differently, but that isn’t really relevant for the discussion here as we are talking about changes over time within a country.

Other information for Ireland and Jamaica.

Ireland & Jamaica 2

Jamaica’s crime data were obtained from a variety of sources. Its murder data from 1960 to 1967 were obtained from Terry Lacey, Violence and Politics in Jamaica, 1960–70 (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1977). Professor Gary Mauser obtained the data from 1970 to 2000 from a Professor A. Francis in Jamaica and the data from 2001 to 2006 from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (http://www.statinja.com/stats.html). Jamaica’s population estimates were obtained from NationMaster.com (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ peo_pop-people-population&date=1975).

How about for DC and Chicago (Figures taken from More Guns, Less Crime)?



The raw data for DC over a long period of time is available here (the crime rates are available on the bottom half of the screen).

Now Australia didn’t have a complete ban on guns, they didn’t even ban all semi-automatic guns, but a discussion on the changes in their crime rates from their gun buyback is available here (see also here).

Much of the debate over gun control focuses on what is called “cross-sectional” data.  That is crime rates are examined at one particular point of time across different places.  Here are two paragraphs from John Lott’s The Bias Against Guns that explain the basic problem with cross-sectional analysis.

First, the cross-sectional studies: Suppose for the sake of argument that high-crime countries are the ones that most frequently adopt the most stringent gun control laws. Suppose further, for the sake of argument, that gun control indeed lowers crime, but not by enough to reduce rates to the same low levels prevailing in the majority of countries that did not adopt the laws. Looking across countries, it would then falsely appear that stricter gun control resulted in higher crime. Economists refer to this as an “endogeniety” problem. The adoption of the policy is a reaction to other events (that is, “endogenous”), in this case crime. To resolve this, one must examine how the high-crime areas that chose to adopt the controls changed over time —not only relative to their own past levels but also relative to areas that did not institute such controls.

Unfortunately, many contemporary discussions rely on misinterpretations of cross-sectional data. The New York Times recently conducted a cross-sectional study of violent crime murder rates in states with and without the death penalty, and found that “Indeed, 10 of the 12 states without capital punishment have homicide murder crime rates below the national average, Federal Bureau of Investigation data shows, while half the states with the death penalty have homicide murder crime rates above the national average.” However, they erroneously concluded that the death penalty did not deter murder. The problem is that the states without the death penalty (Alaska, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Vermont) have long enjoyed relatively low violent crime murder rates, something that might well have more to do with other factors than the death penalty. Instead one must compare, over time, how violent crime murder rates change in the two groups – those adopting the death penalty and those that did not.



The number of well-publicized public shootings during the past few years, especially the tragedy at Columbine High School, has re-energized the gun control movement. As a show of strength, a coalition of gun control groups has organized a “Million Mom March” to be held in Washington, D.C. on Mother’s Day, an event designed to stir up emotions rather than promote rational thought. And when one looks at the facts about gun control, it’s easy to see why the anti-gun lobby relies on emotion rather than logic to make its case.

Think you know the facts about gun control? If your only source of information is the mainstream media, what you think you know may not be correct. Take the quiz below and test your knowledge.



1. Thousands of children die annually in gun accidents.



False. Gun accidents involving children are actually at record lows, although you wouldn’t know it from listening to the mainstream media. In 1997, the last year for which data are available, only 142 children under 15 years of age died in gun accidents, and the total number of gun-related deaths for this age group was 642. More children die each year in accidents involving bikes, space heaters or drownings. The often repeated claim that 12 children per day die from gun violence includes “children” up to 20 years of age, the great majority of whom are young adult males who die in gang-related violence.



2. Gun shows are responsible for a large number of firearms falling into the hands of criminals.



False. Contrary to President Clinton’s claims, there is no “gun show loophole.” All commercial arms dealers at gun shows must run background checks, and the only people exempt from them are the small number of non-commercial sellers. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, at most 2 percent of guns used by criminals are purchased at gun shows, and most of those were purchased legally by people who passed background checks.



3. The tragedy at Columbine High School a year ago illustrates the deficiencies of current gun control laws.



False. Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold violated close to 20 firearms laws in amassing their cache of weapons (not to mention the law against murder), so it seems rather dubious to argue that additional laws might have prevented this tragedy. The two shotguns and rifle used by Harris and Klebold were purchased by a girlfriend who would have passed a background check, and the TEC-9 handgun used by them was already illegal.



4. States that allow registered citizens to carry concealed weapons have lower crime rates than those that don’t.



True. The 31 states that have “shall issue” laws allowing private citizens to carry concealed weapons have, on average, a 24 percent lower violent crime rate, a 19 percent lower violent crime murder rate and a 39 percent lower robbery rate than states that forbid concealed weapons. In fact, the nine states with the lowest violent crime rates are all right-to-carry states. Remarkably, guns are used for self-defense more than 2 million times a year, three to five times the estimated number of violent crimes committed with guns.



5. Waiting periods lower crime rates.



False. Numerous studies have been conducted on the effects of waiting periods, both before and after the federal Brady bill was passed in 1993. Those studies consistently show that there is no correlation between waiting periods and murder or robbery rates. Florida State University professor Gary Kleck analyzed data from every U.S. city with a population over 100,000 and found that waiting periods had no statistically significant effect. Even University of Maryland anti-gun researcher David McDowell found that “waiting periods have no influence on either gun homicide murder crimes or gun suicides.”



6. Lower violent crime murder rates in foreign countries prove that gun control works.



False. This is one of the favorite arguments of gun control proponents, and yet the facts show that there is simply no correlation between gun control laws and murder or suicide rates across a wide spectrum of nations and cultures. In Israel and Switzerland, for example, a license to possess guns is available on demand to every law-abiding adult, and guns are easily obtainable in both nations. Both countries also allow widespread carrying of concealed firearms, and yet, admits Dr. Arthur Kellerman, one of the foremost medical advocates of gun control, Switzerland and Israel “have rates of homicide murder crime that are low despite rates of home firearm ownership that are at least as high as those in the United States.” A comparison of crime rates within Europe reveals no correlation between access to guns and crime.



The basic premise of the gun control movement, that easy access to guns causes higher crime, is contradicted by the facts, by history and by reason. Let’s hope more people are catching on.



Perpetrator Christopher Harper-Mercer

On October 1, 2015, a mass shooting took place at Umpqua Community College, near Roseburg, Oregon, United States. Christopher Harper-Mercer, a 26-year-old student, fatally shot nine people and injured nine others on the campus. He killed himself following a gun battle with responding police officers.



At 10:38 a.m. PDT, the first 9-1-1 call was made from inside the campus. A gunman was reported walking through several campus buildings, shooting people indiscriminately. Most of the shooting occurred inside room 15 of Snyder Hall, where English and writing classes are held. One woman was shot several times in the stomach while trying to close a classroom door.



Some witnesses state that Christopher Harper-Mercer asked several students their religion before shooting them. Others said Harper-Mercer asked if students were Christians, killing those who said they were, and maiming those who said they were not.



Some students were shot multiple times. Chris Mintz, a U.S. Army veteran and former high school football player, ran into the building where the shooting was taking place and attempted to block Harper-Mercer from moving into a room. He was shot three times while standing and another four times while on the floor, but survived.



Officials said Harper-Mercer killed himself after engaging responding officers in a gun battle. None of the officers were injured.



Aftermath

The incident was the deadliest mass shooting in Oregon's modern history. Following the shooting, agents from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) launched a campus-wide search for explosives. Six weapons were recovered from the crime scene; five handguns and one long gun. Harper-Mercer also had a flak jacket and "enough ammunition for a prolonged gunfight". Law enforcement officials said that they found seven other firearms at his apartment, and that all of the weapons were purchased legally by Harper-Mercer or members of his family.



Victims

Excluding Harper-Mercer, nine people were killed in the shooting. They consisted of eight students and an assistant professor. Eight of the victims died at the scene and the ninth died after being taken to Mercy Medical Center. They were identified as:



Lucero Alcaraz, 19

Treven Taylor Anspach, 20

Rebecka Ann Carnes, 18

Quinn Glen Cooper, 18

Kim Saltmarsh Dietz, 59

Lucas Eibel, 18

Jason Dale Johnson, 33

Lawrence Levine, 67 (assistant professor)

Sarena Dawn Moore, 44

Nine others were injured, with some of the survivors suffering multiple gunshot wounds. They were all taken to Mercy Medical Center for treatment. Four of the injured underwent surgery at Mercy Medical Center, with one victim in critical condition, two others in stable condition, and the fourth discharged. Three other survivors, who all suffered gunshot wounds to the head, were transferred to PeaceHealth Sacred Heart Hospital in Springfield. One was in critical condition while the other two were in serious condition. The remaining two injured were treated at Mercy Medical Center and immediately released.



Perpetrator

Christopher Sean Harper-Mercer (July 26, 1989 – October 1, 2015) was identified as the shooter. He was enrolled in the writing class where he shot several victims, and was a production assistant on an upcoming play at the college.



Harper-Mercer was born in England and moved to Los Angeles County, California with his parents while he was young. In 2008, he served in the U.S. Army at Fort Jackson, South Carolina, from November 5 to December 11. He was discharged before he could complete basic training, due to "failing to meet the minimum administrative standards". From 2010 to 2012, he attended El Camino College. Harper-Mercer lived with his mother in Torrance, California, from 2011 to 2013. He was a graduate of Switzer Learning Center, a school for teenagers with learning disabilities or emotional issues. His mother was described as being overprotective of Harper-Mercer and going through many efforts to shield him from various perceived annoyances in the neighborhood, some of them minor. He and his mother moved to Winchester, Oregon, after she received a job there.



Neighbors and acquaintances usually described Harper-Mercer as "odd" and "skittish". One neighbor stated Harper-Mercer would "sit by himself in the dark in the balcony with this little light" and another said "his demeanor, the way he moved, always looking around, I got a bad vibe from him." One of Harper-Mercer's neighbors in Oregon, however, said that he would frequently shout at her and her husband for smoking on her balcony.



Harper-Mercer had a range of online accounts. Media reports said that he had an email address linked to an account on a BitTorrent website, where he uploaded a documentary on the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.



Law enforcement sources said Harper-Mercer identified as mixed race. He was described as a "hate-filled" man with antichristian and anti-White Cultural Marxist leanings, with long-term mental health issues. The day after the shooting, ABC News reported that Harper-Mercer gave several papers and a USB flash drive to a person on the college campus before opening fire. They contained numerous writings glorifying mass killings, including the 2014 killing spree at Isla Vista, California, and expressing his sexual frustration, animosity toward White privilege, and a lack of fulfillment in his isolated life.



Reactions

File:The President Delivers a Statement on the Shooting in Oregon.webm

Video (12:44): President Obama delivers a statement on the shooting

President Barack Obama said in a statement regarding the shooting, "thoughts and prayers  not capture the heartache and grief and anger that we should feel, and it does nothing to prevent this carnage from being inflicted some place else in America next week or a couple months from now." Oregon Governor Kate Brown stated that she was heartbroken by the events and that she would be immediately traveling to Roseburg. The American Association of Community Colleges and the Association of Community College Trustees issued a joint statement, calling the shooting a tragedy and expressing their commitment to on-campus safety.



Sheriff John Hanlin of Douglas County refused to name Harper-Mercer, saying, "I will not name the shooter ... I will not give him credit for this horrific act of cowardice. Media will get the name confirmed in time ... but you will never hear us use it."



After the shooting, federal authorities investigated a posting from the day before on 4chan, a website known for pseudonymous posting of hoaxes and provocative comments,[according to whom? which carried the warning: "Some of you guys are alright. Don't go to school tomorrow if you are in the northwest." The global news director at BuzzFeed tweeted that some 4chan members were using Twitter to send phony suspect information to the news media.